Quantitative and Physical History
Quantitative Methods In History
By Mark Ciotola
First published on February 27, 2019
There are two schools of thought regarding the nature of history as a discipline. Some consider history to be among the humanities. Others consider it to be a social science. Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive. This work does not propose a quantitative approach as a replacement for narrative, scholarly approaches, but rather to provide useful additional tools.
Entering into quantitative methods begs several questions, such as “What can be quantified?”, “How accurate and meaningful is historical quantitative data?” “What can be modeled?” and “How accurate are such models?
Nearly anything can be quantitatively modeled, either directly or by proxy. Even love can be quantified, through proxies, such as in terms of hours a day thinking about someone or the cost an an engagement ring versus income or assets. Or perhaps even directly, via electrodes wired to the brain.
A more penetrating matter regards the accuracy of such models. Proxies can always be found, and some data can always be found, yet it may not be abundant or precise enough to produce models of sufficient accuracy for the purposes desired. This question must be answered on a case-by-case basis, although it can be possible to make generalizations about accuracy. For example, the further one goes back into history, there is generally less abundant and accurate data. Also, was casualties, especially further back in history, are often suspect, and tend to be exaggerated either up or down, depending on the perspective of the source.
Finally, is the cost worth it? Much data can be obtained, but it can often be costly to gather and process it. Can one afford that and is it worth the cost for the benefit obtained?
Types of Quantities
Many different things can be quantified, although some are more obvious than others. Battles are often quantified by the numbers of soldiers fighting on each side, as well as by casualties and reparations. There is often commercial and trade data, such as how much wheat was produced in a kingdom, or taxes on trade. There is geographic data, such as how many square kilometers a kingdom ruled, how much rainfall that area received, and how long were trade routes. Finally, there is time data, such as how long certain historical persons lived, or how long their dynasties endured.
Types of Models
Examples of simple models that can be easily visualized are introduced: linear, quadratic, exponential growth, logistic, and efficiency-discounted exponential growth (EDEG). Simulation tools are briefly introduced, such as pen-on-paper, MS Excel, Ruby, Python, R, Wolfram Alpha, Processing, SVG, and graphical information systems (GIS).
Computational history is related to quantitative methods. Computational history is a subset of the digital humanities. Computational tools can be extremely useful for simulating, illustrating and visualizing certain aspects of history. That said, there should be a lot of thinking before computational techniques are brought into play. One can generate considerable data and even impressive graphics that don’t really mean anything, or are just plain incorrect or misleading. Remember the lessons of Merlin’s Apprentice!
Simulation tools are briefly introduced, such as pen-on-paper, MS Excel, Ruby, Python, R, Wolfram Alpha, Processing, SVG, and graphical information systems (GIS).
- Wikidata is a source of a great variety of data, including historical data. While the reliability and completeness can vary, it can sometimes be a good starting point. The data may be contained in a variety of different documents.
- Wolfram Alpha can be asked questions that will sometimes produce historical data.