Modeling Historical Dynasties

Exceptional Dynastic and Society Events


First published on March 21, 2019

Catastrophic Events and the Unexpected

Sometimes something out of a science fiction movie does occur and really can eliminate regimes or seriously deform their Hubbert curve. Catastrophic tsunamis and volcanoes, great floods, extraordinary plagues and giant meteors can change the typical patterns of Hewett-Hubbert Curves. Invasions, new philosophies and religions, and truly revolutionary new technologies can seriously distort Hewett-Hubbert Curve patterns. After such an unusual event occurs, the regime will attempt to stabilize itself and reestablish a Hubbert curve of different parameters, or a new regime will appear that will exhibit a new Hubbert Curve. Where such events occur, the model for the regime will have to be substantially reinitialized. A dynasty approaching its peak will be less subject to disruption, whereas one at its beginning or near its end will be highly vulnerable. Some catastrophes are so large, they would overwhelm any dynasty at any stage. A rough index of index of outcome for a particular point of time might be:

survival index =  (size of society x power level) / (magnitude of disruption).


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