Modeling Historical Dynasties
Secondary Dynastic Events
By Mark Ciotola
First published on March 21, 2019
Although there may be a primary power source, such as agriculture, for a dynasty, there may be secondary sources of power and costs, as well as short-term events that will impact the primary power progression of s dynasty, and should be taken into account where possible.
Superposition of Noise and Other Functions Upon Hewett-Hubbert Curves
Actual data regarding production or consumption of a critical resource will not be a smooth function, but rather lots of jagged peaks and dips. These peaks and dips often represent independent functions that are not functions of the critical resource. Sometimes the independent functions are harmonic in nature. Often they are chaotic in nature. Sometimes the peaks and dips are due to random events or “noise”. Usually the magnitude of the random events will not seriously disrupt the regime. Sufficiently complex regimes are “self-healing.” They will react in a manner to compensate for these random events. (See discussion regarding conservation of shock under meta-mechanics). There may literally be small, shorter duration Hewett-Hubbert functions, reflecting business cycles, short-term opportunities and setbacks superimposed upon the dynastic function. Further, although a regime can be expressed as a function of a conserved critical resource, in some cases other resources may be good substitutes. Such resources will entail their own infrastructure and merit a Hubbert curve in their own right. Consider the example of oil versus coal. The U.S. is heavily dependent upon petroleum. There are large oil companies as well as drilling operations and a significant oil processing and distribution network. Petroleum acquisition is supported by powerful lobbyists and the deployment of the U.S. military where required. Coal can be an important substitute for petroleum. Gasoline can be made from coal. It’s more expensive, but not prohibitively so. Coal has its own companies, its own processing facilities and its own distribution network and customer base. Coal has its own lobbyists as well. Sometimes coal interests are at odds with petroleum interests. Consumption of petroleum and coal can each be expressed as separate Hubbert curves. When describing the U.S. regime, the more significant of the two resources may considered as the critical resource. However, a better representation would be to superimpose both the oil and coal curves. This involves adding them up, period-by-period. Doing so for the past where data exists is relatively simple. Extending those curves into the future is possible, but more challenging. Standard economic analysis can provide some indication of relative demand for each resource.
Secondary Functions from Hewett-Hubbert Curve
Other functions may themselves be secondary functions that are driven by the main Hewett-Hubbert curve function. The social values and moods of a society are to some extent a function of position along the Hewett-Hubbert curve. Such social values and moods can be considered secondary Hubbert functions. Examples include the distribution of wealth, economic centralization, development of infrastructure, aspects of philosophy, tolerance for “immoral” behavior and even number and size of libraries.